Friday, April 29, 2011

April Update

I have been busy, but I have added a few things to my EV. I know have a quiet vacuum pump from Audi which provides up to 28" Hg of vacuum and my brakes work a lot better now. I got the pump off eBay for a lot less than the noisy Thomas Pump I had been using.

I have been working on two rather stubborn batteries. I haven't been driving the EV as much as I should, and two batteries are performing a lot worse than they should be. I believe they are become stratified, so I am working on those batteries. I am breaking in the pack again slowly and charging the lower batteries with a power supply. I also am giving the entire pack a day or two on a float setting to get the acid moving around again.

I am thinking about upgrading my EV to 120 or 144 volts and a new chassis this summer, with lithium batteries possible. I am going through my budget and options now, but if I can't get these two stubborn batteries back up I am thinking about replacing them or doing the upgrade. This weekend is really nice, so I plan on working a lot on my EV in between getting ready for the end of the semester.

Monday, April 25, 2011

One little problem with high mileage cars

There's a lot to like about the many new cars that are coming out that get 40 miles per gallon or more.  The NY Times (April 24, 2011) reports that the Civic, Mazda, Hyundai, Kia , and VW all are in this range.  As noted in my previous post, the Chevy Cruze is also there.  And, of course, the Prius.  These cars will save consumers a lot of money, reduce our oil imports, and help clean our air.  But there is one little problem--THEY WILL DESTROY CIVILIZATION AS WE KNOW IT.  Sorry to be shouting about this, but I do get a little emotional.

Here's the problem:  If the average car drives 12,000 miles per year, it will use 300 gallons of gas at 40 mpg. Each gallon of gas produces 20 pounds of CO2 so that is three tons of CO2 per car per year, not even counting the energy for producing the gas, which is substantial (I'll work on that).  Since the planet can only absorb one ton per person,* which is already more than we use for producing food and heating our homes, three tons per car is just three tons too much.  Even 80 miles per gallon would produce over 1 1/2 tons per car, which is 1 1/2 tons too much.  More efficient fossil fuel cars are not going to stop climate change.

As argued throughout this blog, the answer is to convert the cars to electric and to generate the electicity with solar panels or other renewable sources.  The technology is here.  It's a matter of political will.


*"Last year humans emitted 31.5 billion metric tons of CO2, including about 20 tons per person in the U.S. Of this about 18 billion tons stayed in the atmosphere. We know this for a fact since the CO2 level increased by 2.3 ppm and it takes 7.81 billion tons to raise the CO2 level by one ppm. "

Even if we reduce emissions to 13 billion tons, about half of that would stay in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in CO2 by about 1 ppm. Unless some new method of geo-engineering, such as promotion of growth of phytoplankton, is developed, only an increase in forestation will increase the earth’s ability to absorb CO2. That scenario is very challenging given human patterns of increasing development and consumption. Given the uncertainty of all of this, Joseph Romm, author of Hell and High Water, recommends a goal of eight billion tons of CO2 per year as a maximum emission level.

This quote is from the paper by myself and Bond Yee on global warming and electric cars also referenced in the sidebar to this blog.
Since the earth can only absorb 8 billion tons of CO2 and there will soon be 8 billion people on earth, our goal has to be to reduce CO2 emissions to one ton per person per year--anything more than that will continue to increase the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, leading to climate chaos.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Bob Lutz conversation


After the premiere of Revenge of the Electric Car I had a chance to ask Bob Lutz a couple of questions. Bob was featured in the film as the top executive of GM who pushed the development of the Volt. He is a long time GM executive and fully defends GMs development of the Hummer and other gas guzzlers. He says that GM just gave people the cars they wanted. He also says, "You don't have to believe in anthropogenic global warming to support electric cars." [that may be true on one level, but to me believing in fossil fuel generated CO2 as the leading cause of global warming is simply believing in science, and how you can support electric cars if you don't believe in science is a puzzle to me—but I digress] I later read that he was indeed a global warming denier and that he had supported impractical and unecological hydrogen fuel cell cars and had helped to kill the EV1.
So here was a unique opportunity to talk to the real thing—a member of the U.S. corporate ruling elite. The film referred to entering GM as "going behind enemy lines" and here was the personification of the enemy. Yet Mr. Lutz was now a genuine supporter of the Volt and electric vehicles. I had hoped that the auto companies would part ways with the oil companies instead of being their staunch allies. Mr. Lutz is an example of that split, one that needs to continue to widen.
My question for Mr. Lutz was a follow-up to a comment he made in the film. A scene in the film shows him next to the Volt assembly line in Hamtramck, Michigan; he says that "all cars on this assembly line will be Volts." So my question to him was when this was going to happen. I was pleased to hear him say that he was pretty sure that all the cars on that assembly line are now Volts. My follow up question to him was how long did he think GM would keep making internal combustion engine cars. His response was that, "The piston engine isn't going away any time soon. The Volt is expensive. Run the numbers. The Chevy Cruze only costs $17,000." I responded saying, "I have run the numbers. . ." but then I paused because I thought he may be right about the Cruze being cheaper than the Volt. He surprised me by continuing, "What should happen is that the gas tax should go up 25 cents every year. That way people could look ahead and make decisions based on the future cost of gas." That surprised me because it sounded like what the Sierra Club and environmentalists have advocated for years, but a solid alliance of oil and auto companies have made it politically impossible. Anyway, there were lots of people waiting to talk to him, and I wasn't sure of my numbers comparing the Cruze to the Volt, so that was the end of our conversation. Later, I wished I had told him that we drove Volt #575 and were big fans—but I didn't think fast enough to say that. I also wished I had asked him when he thought the price of the Volt was going to come down, since that would make the car a lot more attractive. (Personally I think the price will come down when more competition hits the market in the next few years.)
His comments did get me to thinking—are we using different numbers and are my numbers wrong? I have several thoughts on this.
  • One is that gas on the east coast is still around $3.70 per gallon compared to $4.25 in Oakland, so that makes a difference.
  • Also, the PG&E nighttime pricing of electricity at 5 cents per kilowatt hour is also a big advantage for us in Oakland. I've been surprised that even the Oakland Tribune isn't aware of this great deal for electric cars, so it's not a surprise that Bob Lutz would not be aware of it. The film makes the point that electricity is like paying $1.00 per gallon for gas. Assuming the U.S. average of 20 miles per gallon for gas, that would be 5 cents per mile. However, as I've argued in this blog (see FAQs at bottom) that the cost is closer to 2 cents per mile (although I'm still learning and fine tuning that estimate).
  • Another is financing. I am basing my cost estimates on obtaining a 15 year house refinance loan at 5% interest. Now obviously not everyone can do that, but spreading the cost out makes the electric car a more attractive investment since it means that you start saving money immediately. In fact this would be a great area of government support for electric cars—helping people spread out the cost through longer term loans. My understanding is that that GM offers a maximum of 5 year financing. Of course here I may be biasing this by living in California where the cars last forever. Back in my home state of Illinois, the salt on the roads in winter eats up the cars so they don't last 15 years. This is another problem that needs addressing. (I'm not counting the tax deduction you get for interest on your house mortgage, which not everyone can claim, but it does save us about 5% on our payments and even more in the first few years, so it's the way to go if you can qualify.)
  • And I count the $7500 tax credit for the Volt, which I'm sure Mr. Lutz also includes. I understand California may have a tax credit as well, but I'm not sure about that, so I'm leaving it out for now.
Anyway to respond to his comment and re-run the numbers: The Volt costs $40,500 and the Cruze costs $17,000. Subtracting the tax credit means the Volt costs $33,000--$16,000 more than the Cruze. The Cruise gets about 35 miles per gallon. At $4.25 per gallon that is 12 cents per mile. If you drive 10,000 miles per year on the batteries (at 2 cents per mile), that is a savings of 10 cents per mile x 10,000 miles = $1,000 per year. If you borrow $16,000 at 5% interest for 15 years that costs you around $1500 per year, so Bob is right--the Cruze is cheaper until the price of gas hits $5.95 per gallon, or if the Volt can knock $6000 off its selling price. Compared to cars getting worse mileage than the Cruze (like our old Honda Civic that got 25 mpg), however, the Volt wins with the current numbers. For example, compared to an average car that gets 20 miles per gallon, the savings is 18 cents per mile--$1800 per year—so the Volt saves $300 per year. But electric cars are much more fun to drive, and they are not susceptible to rising gas prices, and (if you believe in the same science that built the Volt) they don't destroy the earth, so the Volt is the clear winner, even against the Cruze.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Revenge of the Electric Car--Review

Revenge of the Electric Car—documentary film by Chris Paine
The electric car has risen from the dead, and it’s back with a vengeance.  This sequel to Paine’s Who Killed the Electric Car premiered last night (April 22, 2011) at the Tribeca Film festival in New York.  The film is very informative, suspenseful, and entertaining. It follows three car manufacturers—Tesla, Nissan, and GM—through the sometimes painful, sometimes exhilarating birth of their new electric car babies.  It has some amazing footage inside the GM boardroom during the bankruptcy, Tesla hanging on through its financial cliffhanger, and Nissan daring to forge a new path for the automotive industry.  It also follows one of many small scale electric car conversion companies—Left Coast Electric—through its struggles to survive.  In each case the challenge to move from the conceptual stage to reality is a daunting task.

Key figures in the film appeared for Q&A after the premiere to give their impressions:
·         GM executive Bob Lutz, a key promoter of the Volt, said the film “was nicely balanced—especially compared to the previous film” drawing a laugh from the audience (GM was a clear villain in Who Killed the Electric Car?)
·         CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, said the film was an “honest portrayal of the trials and tribulations” they had gone through.  “Movies like this are a pretty important boost to electrification.”
·         Dan Neil of the Wall Street Journal said it was “a great film” and “a beautiful bookend to the first film.”  He noted that there “are many forces still holding it [production of electric cars] back” and that the film is “really important” to overcoming these “cultural forces.”
·         Chelsea Sexton, champion of the EV1 featured in Who Killed the Electric Car, said the film was a “milestone we deserve to celebrate.”

A spokesperson for the Sierra Club offered their congratulations during the Q&A.  Greg “Reverend Gadget” Abbott of Left Coast Electric pointed out that the 7.5 kilowatt hours it takes to produce and refine a gallon of gas is enough to drive an electric car 20 miles, referring to that as a dirty little secret of the oil companies.

Here are some quotes from the film that particularly struck me:

Elon Musk:  Electric cars are “a way of moving us off of oil as soon as possible.”  Our goal is to make “every car on the road” electric.  “We will not stop.”

Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan: “Everybody is going to come to the game.”  He also said that every day that his competitors delay in developing electric cars is a good day for Nissan, since they are moving rapidly ahead. 

Bob Lutz:  Electric cars are “the only way forward” and are “inevitable.”

Additional important messages from the film:
·         “As we clean up the grid, the car gets cleaner,” referring to solar and wind and clean sources of electricity.
·          “Gasoline engine cars are like the dark ages.”
·         In the 1920s there were 300 car companies in the U.S.; now there are 2½ --“it ain’t easy”

All in all I really enjoyed the film and highly recommend it for anyone who drives a car and/or who is interested in saving the planet.   The film argues that “It’s just a matter of time” for electric cars to take over.  The question is whether it will be in time to stave off climate chaos.


PS:  I also had an interesting talk with Bob Lutz after the show—stay tuned for the next blog!


Some photos from the event:


                                                 Chris Paine introducing the film


                     Scarlett & Greg Abbott, Elon Musk, Bob Lutz, Chris Paine, Dan Neil,
                              Michelle from Edmunds(?),Chelsea Sexton during Q & A

                               Chris Paine and Jack Lucero Fleck (photo by Velynthia Dowdell)

Bob Lutz answering questions after the show

Scarlett Abbott and Reverend Gadget





Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Three month mileage/solar power report

The most important number here is 235 miles per gallon for the past three months!

Since January 18, we have driven 2,450 miles and used 10.4 gallons of gas--235.2 miles per gallon.  Not bad. 

In that time our electric meter shows a net of 883 kilowatt hours used and our solar inverter shows 916 kwh produced.  This means we have used a total of 1800 kwh--600 kwh per month.  I had assumed that the car uses about 10 kwh per day, and this is pretty close according to our chargepoint software, which was installed March 23.  As more time passes, I will be able to get better numbers.

Assuming that the car goes 37 miles per gallon when it uses gas, then the 10.4 gallons account for 385 miles on gas.  That leaves 2,450 - 385 = 2,065 miles on the batteries.  Assuming about 900 kwh for the car in the 90 days since January 18, that is 2,065 divided by 900 = 2.3 miles per kwh.  This is less than I had been assuming (see the FAQs at the bottom of this blog); if the numbers hold, the new cost per mile would go up from 2 cents (the number I had been using) to 2.6 cents per mile--still a lot better than 20 cents per mile on gasoline.

As far as the solar output is concerned, the total of 916 kwh for 90 days is to be expected for this early part of the year.  The estimate of 4200 kwh per year from our 3.2 kilowatt solar system that I used for most of my cost estimates still looks reasonable.  I'll revisit those estimates once the real numbers come in--especially the total kwh generated in the coming summer's afternoon peak, which is reimbursed at 28 cents per kwh.

The total mileage on the car, including our trip to San Diego in January when we first bought it is 3,813 miles, 43 gallons of gas consumed, 88.8 miles per gallon--still not bad.



Sunday, April 17, 2011

New PG&E website on electric vehicles

PG&E (our electric/gas utility company) has a new website to help people install electrical work for electric cars.  You can check it out at:  PG&E website on electric vehicles

The site is useful for explaining how to make sure your wiring is correct for the charging of your car.  Last December, we upgraded our panel from an old fusebox to a modern circuit breaker box and added a 220/240 volt circuit in anticipation of getting the Volt.  We also worked with PG&E to learn about the E9A and the E9B rates.  Their new website does not make it clear that the E9B rate (separate meter for the car) is the way to go if you do not have solar panels on the roof and that the E9A rate is the way to go if you do have solar panels since you can take advantage of the low rate at night for charging the car (about 5 cents per kwh) and the high rate during summer peak (28 cents per kwh) when the solar panels are producing a lot of their output.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Why we need electric cars and solar panels

Hey, I don't want to guilt trip anyone, but here's the way I look at it:

If you love coral reefs and all their wonderful tropical fishes, the arctic tundra with its herds of caribou, or our amazing fertile prairies with acres of cornfields or just life on this planet in general, we've got to stop emitting CO2.  If you are one of the millions of birdwatchers, for example, rising oceans are going to wipe out vital wetlands necessary for migrating birds.

I was reminded of all this in an April 6 article from the Sierra Club: 
Why do Sea Turtles Need Solar Panels?

Of course, human beings are also threatened by droughts, storms, heatwaves, floods, and general havoc created by climate chaos.  So even if you just care about yourself and your family, we've got to stop emitting CO2. 

Thankfully, with electric cars and solar panels, we can eliminate 50% of CO2 emissions in the U.S.  See the paper that Bond Yee and I wrote, in the side panel to this blog for more details on that.  And then, don't feel guilty, take action and start planning your solar panels and electric vehicle purchase (of course if you are a person who only rides a bike or takes public transit, you're already there--congratulations!)


 

Monday, April 11, 2011

Snowed In Round Up

In this month's Snowed In challenge, I wanted to see rough and tumble vehicles made to handle the snow and ice. We're talking snowplows, ice racers, snowmobiles, arctic explorers...the whole icy works! Well, it seems I got what I wanted in abundance! Early on, we've found out that some LUGNutters have been buried in three feet of the frigid stuff nearly every day since November while others have never seen even a solitary snowflake. Still, everyone stepped up to the plate with their frosty creations. So lets sit back with some hot chocolate (spiked, if you are so inclined) and see how we did, shall we?

At the first sign of frost, Dohoon Kim is the first on the icy scene with a trifecta of rugged vehicles made to tackle the snow. The first is a neat little snowmobile for those who don't mind playing in the freezing cold. The little minifig guy looks determined to wake us all up at 5 am with his revving engine.

Snow Mobile

Sometimes when there's just too much snow for even the little snowmobile guy you have to call none other than these other minifig guys and their snowplow truck...complete with plow and caterpillar traction. Sweet!

Snow Plow Truck

No school snow days are merely a fond fading memory when you have this rough and tumble school bus on hand to take those crying kiddies off to school. Now you can't blame failing grades on the weather. Now failing grades are because you just suck at algebra. Ah, the memories!

Snow School Bus

Then much later, Dohoon comes back with another trifecta of icy treats. Made to tackle the snow...and to belittle nerds in the school parking lot, is this Hummer H2 in bright yellow. Now the bullies who drive them are going to have to find another way to vent their 'roid rage as the entire Hummer brand came to an end in 2010.

Hummer H2

A snowplow tractor might be just what you need to shovel away that huge mountain of snow left by the other plows at the head of your driveway. How does he make that trans-yellow flamey light thingy float like that?

Snow Plow Tractor

Finishing off the Dohoon Kim slab is this huge GMC Topkick 4500 pickup truck in sleek black...complete with dual stack exhaust pipes. Now thats cool!

GMC Topkick 4500

CJay reheats some old leftovers with this Izuzu Dump Truck with Snow Plow built way back in October. There's no rule saying you can't rehash old MOCs for our challenges. Oh wait, there is! We just didn't write it down anywhere. But yeah, we prefer new stuff. Its still cool though, ya gotta admit, and like most of what CJay does a marvel of techic engineering.

ISUZU Dump Truck With Snow Plow

Sangi13 reaches for his usual red...no, wait...WHITE pieces to whip up this '89 International Plow Truck complete with all the bells and whistles including 3-way tilt play and state-of-the-art sander and salter. And a little lime green, chrome and black thrown in...with nary a red brick in sight.

1989 International 2554

Except for his second entry...predictably all red. It's an Izuzu NPR 3500. Isn't NPR a radio program for uptight intellectuals to listen to stories about patchwork quilting or wheat fields or something? I don't know...NPR seems void of good old Rock and Roll.

Isuzu NPR 3500

Dylan Denton turns off the heat and...um...cranks up the cold (is that even possible?) with this dark green and white Suzuki Samurai amped up with tank treads and working plow. Here we see it negotiating the punishing terrain of real live snow. Lets see you top that, Australia!

Suzuki Samurai Snow Vehicle

No stranger to real live snow is Nathan Proudlove, who lives in the Great White North called Canada. He is, however, a stranger to his own house as he's been housesitting for a few months...which is why he's been pilfering through some kid's Lego stash to build his entries. The tundra buggy is designed to observe lots of Lotso bears in their natural habitat.

Tundra buggy

New to LUGNuts but not new to Lego is Builder42 with his bright yellow, tough as nails Arctic Exploration Vehicle. According to the link to the real thing Its actually a highly customized Humvee...which makes it totally badass. I'm glad Yoder...uh, I mean Builder42 can join in our reindeer games. Finally!

Arctic Humvee

The most prolific Lego automotive builder alive has a short run this time...just one car. Peter Blackert presents a 2011 Ford Fiesta WRC in as many bright colors as a kindergartner's crayon box. At first glance it just seems like some really cool rally car...which it is, but its real counterpart made its debut in the snow and ice packed Rally of Sweden this past February. Go Team Ford!

Ford Fiesta RS WRC - 2011

Forget snow plows, forget tank treads, forget rally racers in bright colors. Sometimes all you need to handle the snow and ice is a good reliable SUV. Speaking of good and reliable, Peteris Sprogis conjures up some LCAD wizardry and renders a very realistic looking Toyota FJ Cruiser. There is one of these parked just two apartments down from my place and this render is a spitting image of the real thing. same color and everything.

Toyota FJ cruiser

Dan has lost his poor little dog but thankfully this story and diorama built as Peteris' second entry has a happy ending. He climbs into his yellow off roader and finds his four-legged friend in the frozen forest. (You like my use of alliteration there?) The dirt trail running diagonally through the snow covered terrain makes for an interesting composition. I'm glad it all turned out well.

Dan's dog

Oldeconoline has a little fun and takes the challenge name very literally with this Snowed In little blue car and parka wearing would be driver. For those who have never seen snow, get a good look because this is very much a reality. Snow is heavy and shoveling your vehicle out of it is an arduous chore...but this smiling little minifig takes it all in stride!

SNOWED IN!

Legogil probably doesn't see much snow all the way down in Brazil...but his research has accurately portrayed the rough and tumble Pisten Bully Rescue Vehicle. The talk of the town over in Gilville had to do with all the great little details including wench, wipers and the stretcher for rescuing lost or injured people. There's lots of nice things happening here.

Rescue vehicle Pisten bully.(snowcat)

When thinking ice and snow, low and sleek Formula One racers don't really come to mind, but Jmaokoen seems to pride himself in never leaving his comfort zones. He finds a way to build yet another Formula One racer, but this time specially rigged with snow skis for the Grand Prix of Norway. Its innovative, I'll give him that.

Formula 1 Norway

When thinking ice and snow, custom motorcycles don't come to mind either, but luckily Lino Martins was the only one crazy enough this challenge to whip up an ice racer bike complete with nasty spiked teeth to bite firmly into the ice. Its odd color scheme and overall idea was loosely based on the one-of-a-kind TGS Seppster 2.

Ice Racer

Tim Inman tears up the snow in sleek style and luxury with this Mercedes-Benz G-Class SUV. Tim tells us this sweet ride started life as a German military vehicle in the late 70's/early 80's when it was known as the Geländewagen or "cross country vehicle." Everything sounds so much cooler and efficient in German. Das Geländewagen!

Mercedes G-Class

If you think Tim's Mercedes would be the only big black SUV this challenge you'd be dead wrong! Rolling in just behind Tim's ride is Firas Abu-Jaber's Chevy Tahoe complete with both wheeled and snow tread conversions. This brute SUV has enough bling and safety features to keep any soccer mom riding in style and as it turns out...this was a commissioned piece to be sent all the was to the US from Jordan. May it have a safe journey.

Chevrolet Tahoe 2 door-treads

We're not done with snow treaded black Chevys yet. Jason Son chimes in with a 1979 Chevy Monte Carlo specially equipped for homies to ride low and slow across the arctic tundra. Its all about oldschool American muscle meets frigid temeratures in this wild and crazy ride. Its like something they would have done on Monster Garage.

Chevy Monte Carlo

What did old-timey dudes do when Mother Nature dumped tons of snow all up in this piece? They probably relied on this 1929 Oshkosh Dumper and Plow built by Christophbrill. It has a rugged grey color but the bright yellow plow means serious business when it comes to clearing that pesky snow outta the way!

1929 Oshkosh Dumper and Plow

And what did old-timey dudes do when Mother Nature dumped tons of snow all up in this piece...and they wanted to have fun? Improbcat shows us with the right tools and a lot of know-how you can turn any Model T into a snowmobile. He tells us there were at least a half dozen companies like Snow Flyer who would do conversions like this. I wonder if they'd turn a snowmobile into a Model T.

DSC_6145

Sometimes we play in the snow, sometimes we shovel it, sometimes we make snow forts with it. But sometimes we just want it the heck out of our lives once and for all. Thats when we call upon the big guns...the really big guns...like this JBC Backhoe Loader built by Ralph Savelsberg. I'm digging the brick built digger. See what I did there?

JCB Backhoe loader (1)

The Big Rafalski endured one parking ticket and a land speed record in order to make it back from Buffalo, NY to photo shoot this Plow King Snowplow. Built with only parts from two sets, the creator Fire Rescue (6752) and the creator Dune Hopper (5763), this pickup was a challenge, given its limited piece selection. I'd say he stepped up to the challenge nicely.

LEGO 6752+5763=?

But young Raphy stepped up to the challenge like no other. Let me explain. The plow truck itself is Raphy's usual four wide fare, but the photography is well staged. Excessive snow really brightens the night sky and the whole scene looks so real you can hardly tell those are Lego trees back there. The lens is slightly blurred, the snow is...flour and the headlight effect was done with the help of Sangi13. Nice job, boys!

Plowin'

And finally to clean up this snowy mess once and for all is new guy ks51455 with his Technic Big Rig Snowplow. Here we see the bright yellow truck negotiating the punishing terrain of real live snow, proving once and for all that even in late March there is still snow somewhere. Apparently they didn't get the memo wherever ks lives that in March we should be marching into spring. Maybe next month then. Next month for sure.

Snow Plow 1

Speaking of next month, its here already and we've gone to the place where beer is plentiful, David Hasselhoff is king...and they make some fine automobiles. Stick around to see how we do in the challenge aptly named Autos Aus Deutschland...all about German cars. Its like the only three German words I could get together without messing it up...actually I needed to consult someone so there goes any notion that I might be good at something. So will yours be a BMW, an Audi, a Volkswagen or a cute little Smart Car? I guess we'll have to wait and see. Until then, I bid you the only other German word I know... Gesundheit!

New license plate and car cover

Here are photos of our new license plate (HALTCO2) and car cover (20% off purchased from Portland Chevy dealer on-line)





Saturday, April 9, 2011

Anger about global warming, solar power and electric cars

I must admit that I am frequently surprised at how angry people get about global warming and reasonable solutions like solar power and electric cars. Right now many Republicans in Congress seem willing to shut down the U.S. goverment for declaring that CO2 is causing global warming. The only explanation that makes sense to me is that these deniers are in the the pay (e.g. the oil-rich Koch Industries funding of the Tea Party) or at least the ideological sway of the oil companies. As Paul Krugman recently wrote, paraphrasing Upton Sinclair, "it's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it." So for all of the sheiks and Big Oil executives, it's clear that nothing we say will convince them. But for everyone else who stands to gain in cash saved, cleaner air, less global warming, less military spending, no oil spills, preservation of Alaska's wilderness, etc---solar power and electric cars are a win-win-win....(right now we are at 220 miles per gallon on our Volt--2,150 miles, 9.8 gallons)

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

EV article in today's Oakland Tribune

The Oakland Tribune reprinted an article from the San Jose Mercury News today that featured Felix Kramer of Calcars.org. The article was a positive treatment of electric vehicles, and I was glad to see it.

However, the article still appears to be not aware of the off-peak electric rates that PG&E offers for charging electric vehicles. The article estimates that electricity to charge an EV would be around 3.7 cents per mile ($561 divided by 15000 miles). In reality the cost is closer to 1.7 cents per mile.

This means that the costs to charge the batteries for 15,000 miles would be $255, not $561 as the article claims.

Here is the arithmetic:

Last night our Volt showed 4 miles remaining on the battery when I plugged it in with the timer set to charge starting at midnight. When I got up, the car showed that it was fully charged with 39 miles showing on the battery. This was an increase of 35 miles. I checked the Chargepoint software today and learned that it took 10 kilowatt hours (kwh) to charge the battery last night. So dividing 35 miles by 10 kwh = 3.5 miles per kwh. This is fairly typical for our car in Oakland, but in areas where the car needs a lot of heating or air conditioning, it would be somewhat lower.

PG&E charges an average of 4 cents per kwh at night. They also charge $12 per month for meter reading and "minimum fees". This adds 2 cents per kwh--$12.00 divided by our monthly usage of 600 kwh = 2 cents per kwh. The PG&E rates are found on the following web site (but note that the rates shown in the tariff table receive a 1.7 cents per kwh credit, which brings the average for summer & winter down to 4 cents for the baseline rate.)
http://www.pge.com/tariffs/tm2/pdf/ELEC_SCHEDS_E-9.pdf

Dividing 6 cents per kwh by 3.5 miles per kwh = 1.7 cents per mile.

Note that I'm assuming our rate is within the baseline since our solar panels keep our total energy consumption very low. If you do not have solar panels, PG&E would charge the E9B rate by installing a separate meter for the electric car. Assuming you use 10 kwh every night to charge the car, that will put you at just over the baseline (about 9 kwh per day for where we live)

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Utilities say legislation could spell rate jump

I noticed this headline today in the Oakland Tribune.

Upon reading the article it said that the State Assembly had passed a measure requiring power companies to obtain up to 33% of their energy from renewable sources by 2020. It went on to say that utility companies would "face steep cost increases to comply with the measure." Utilities currently supply about 20% from renewable sources.

However, those "steep increases" turn out to be 15% by 2020 according to the article. This amounts to an increase of less than 1.5% per year. Compared to the increases of fossil fuels this is hardly "steep".

And the benefits of local jobs, cleaner air, and at least a chance to slow global warming, all make this bill a very positive measure. If we could add a "feed-in tariff" for rooftop solar panels, I'm sure the 33% goal would be very easy to meet.

Inflation and solar power

I just learned that my pension will be eligible for a 2% cost of living increase in July. Now I realize that I am very fortunate to have a pension at all, and to have one that has a healthy financial plan value (San Francisco Employee Retirement System).

But what is the basic element of inflation that is happening right now? From what I can see it's mostly oil; the price of everything else is pretty flat. So anyone with solar panels and an electric car is especially fortunate--the cost of our electricity and driving does not go up at all with inflation. (And even our good pension doesn't really keep up with inflation; for someone who retired in 1983, the pension is 36% below the consumer price index increases.)

Yet another reminder that solar power and electric cars are the way to go.

Business sales projections

I read in the paper (Oakland Tribune, April 1, 2011) that a Morgan Stanley analyst said that "Electric vehicles may rise to 5.5 percent of global sales by 2020 and more than 15 percent by 2025." Meanwhile J.D.Power predicts that "Electric vehicles will make up 2 percent of the global market by 2020".

I have two problems with these predictions. One is that, if the predictions are true, we will add at least another 20 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 to the atmosphere by 2020 (at the current rate of adding 2 ppm per year). Since the climate is already behaving chaotically with the current 390 ppm, that is going to make matters much worse.

On the more optimistic side, I just can't imagine people continuing to buy leafblower cars once they drive an electric car. At least 1/3 of the U.S. population believes that global warming is a serious problem, so this is a huge potential market. Even bigger is the fact that electric car prices are coming down and gas prices are going up. When people realize that it's cheaper to drive an electric car, there is no reason for them to buy comparable gasoline cars, even if they are a global warming doubter.

This is the concept of a tipping point--where the forces for change outweigh the forces resisting change and you get an avalanche, an earthquake, a new baby, a revolution, or . . . no more internal combustion engine cars. I think $4 per gallon is already over the tipping point as soon as more electric cars hit the market. If gas keeps going up 5% per year for another 10 years that will put gas at $6.50 per gallon. By that point I would argue that gasoline engine cars (not counting extended range plug-in electric vehicles like the Volt) will be dinosaurs.

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