Monday, August 22, 2011

Texas Drought


Below is a letter I sent today to the Oakland Tribune:

Dear Editor,

Thank you for your front page article about the Texas drought on August 22.  What's missing from the article is any reference to global warming.  Isn't it worth mentioning that most climate change models predict more and more of this type of weather for the region?  And can it be a coincidence that the "record breaking heat" continues as well as the "most severe one-year drought on record in Texas."  Climate change due to CO2 was predicted in 1897, detected in 1988, and is now wreaking havoc around the world.  We have to stop ignoring this global catastrophe now in progress.

Jack Lucero Fleck

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Stop the Keystone Pipeline

Tar Sands are a highly polluting way to obtain oil.  We need to demand that President Obama not approve the Keystone Pipeline, which would allow a flood of this dirty oil into the U.S.  For more information check out the Tar Sands Action facebook page,  Here is a photo from yesterday's protest at the White House:

League of Conservation Voters is right on target

I just renewed my membership in the League of Conservation Voters. I support them 100% in the fight to stop global warming. Their renewal letter says, "I can assure you, LCV has no intention of ceding the future of our country to Big Oil and their climate-change denying allies in Congress."



You go, LCV!



(To join, please visit: http://www.lcv.org )

Thursday, August 18, 2011

seriously, now. . .

In my last blog I pointed out that the chances that global warming is NOT real are less than 1 in 200 billion.

Now you could say, "See, there IS a chance that the hot weather in the past two decades is purely coincidental", and do nothing about it.  Unfortunately, the consequences of doing nothing are quite a bit greater than arguing about how many angels can sit on the head of a pin. 
  
The international scientific consensus, ratified in Copenhagen in December, 2009, is that temperatures must not be allowed to rise more than 2 degrees Celsius (about 3 1/2  degrees F) to “stave off the worst effects of climate change.” (Source:  press release from the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen: )  These "worst effects" are truly horrible--droughts across much of the world, floods, storms, heat waves, millions if not billions of deaths.  I think it is no exaggeration to say that failure to take action to stop global warming is suicidal. 

So that got me to thinking about the tragedy of hundreds of people who have jumped off the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco to commit suicide.  Now, as fate would have it, according to Yahoo Answers, about 2% of these people live to tell about it.  So the chances of surviving a leap off the Golden Gate Bridge are a billion times higher than the chance that global warming is not real. 

Now, putting these thoughts together, I would argue that the politicians who are denying global warming are essentially asking us all to leap off the Golden Gate Bridge.  That includes Michelle Bachman, Rick Perry, and the whole Tea Party. 

And given the direction of the thermometer, we could easily be at 2 degrees by 2050, so we are talking about this happening during our own lifetimes for most of us, let alone our children and grandchildren.

Seriously, we need a plan and a commitment to convert to renewable energy and electric cars as quickly as humanly possible!



Sunday, August 14, 2011

Rock Auto (Nigeria)







Rock Auto



Rock Auto(West Africa) Nigeria's answer to practical mobility. Rock Auto is the name of the vehicle and Mr Sunday Okpere is its creator.



Thirty five year-old Okpere has been fine tuning the "Rock Auto" persistently for the past four months to ensure its engine runs smoothly and the body looks curvy and flashy like any of the latest imported models on sale in Nigeria.

Okpere said his interest in building vehicles started when he was a child, making toy cars from discarded tins and wires for his friends at school.

Decades later, he decided to unveil his first moving vehicle.

The Rock Auto runs on a Peugeot engine. Okpere says he could not raise funds to build his own engine. The rest of the car is made up of discarded material and scrap metal collected from dumpsites.

Okpere says the Rock Auto is just the beginning.

"There are a lot of things in my brain, because what I am thinking of now is how to build a car for the masses, that will be cheaper for cheaper transport, that is the basic thing," he said.

The Rock auto may not be flashy but it attracts several admirers from his neighborhood of Yaba in the sprawling commercial city of Lagos.

It comes with a set of motorcycle headlights and side indicators, the dash board is bare except for a speedometer and fuel gauge. The 'sound system' is optional -- a transistor radio hung from the roof, and can be taken off and carried wherever one goes to avoid break ins.

It can comfortably carry four passengers.

Okpere declined to reveal how much money he had spent on his innovation and how much he would be willing to sell it for. It has a top speed of 100km/h



Ref



http://www.itnsource.com/shotlist//RTV/2011/06/22/RTV1779411/



Mobius Motors (Kenya)



Mobius Motors



(East Africa) Kenya is home to a new automotive company called Mobius Motors. The answer to Africa's lack of transport for rural Africa. A unique venture that designs, manufactures and sells functional and affordable vehicles for the developing world.



This a great example of African automotive design at work on the continent. So far Mobius Motors has developed a working prototype namely Mobius One and is currently working on completing their second vehicle Mobius Two. Do watch this space for they are on a mission to take the made in Africa badge to the next level; Full Production.



Find out more about the founder and the company at large on their website.





http://www.mobiusmotors.com/

http://www.mobiusmotors.com/company/founder.html



Blown DC/DC

I finally got home from 5 weeks in India and I have discovered my Curtis DC/DC is blown. I have no idea what did it, could have been a nasty lightning storm we had or something else. Point is that I am dead in the water until I get it replaced.



I am searching for the best price on the Zivan DC/DC converters which are 70-160 volts, perfect for when I upgrade to the new Civic later on.

Saturday, August 13, 2011

Anyone for bridge?

I recently posted the odds of having ten straight years of exceptionally hot weather by comparing it to drawing two straight poker hands with four aces (about 3 in a billion).

Since not everyone is a poker player, I decided to calculate the odds of drawing this hand in bridge.  In bridge each player gets 13 cards.  Let's say that the hottest year is like drawing the ace of spades, the second hottest is the ace of hearts, and so on down to the 13th hottest, which would be the jack of spades.  Now there are only 52 playing cards in a deck, while there are 130 years of data, so the odds of a recent year randomly being the hottest ever are actually much less than drawing the ace of spades. But even so, if you randomly drew a card for each of the last 13 years, you would have all the aces--the 4 hottest years, all the kings--next 4 hottest years, all the queens--next four hottest years, and the lowly jack of diamonds for poor 2000, which was "only" the 15th hottest year on record.  You could bid 7 no trump and lay down your cards with no contest!

What are the odds of that?   From the math is fun web site, I learn that there are 635,013,559,600 possible hands (that's 635 billion+!) of bridge (combinations of 13 cards from a deck of 52).  So in our last 13 years there are only two other hands possibly higher--i.e. where 2000 would be the jack of spades or the jack of hearts.  So counting our jack of diamonds, we see that the odds are 3 out of 635 billion of drawing this hand.

Math is fun!


Rank             Year                Degrees F above 20th Century average
1                   2005                1.12
                     2010                1.12
3                   1998                1.08
4                   2003                1.04
                     2002                1.04
6                   2006                1.01
                     2009                1.01
8                   2007                 .99
9                   2004                 .97
10                 2001                 .94
11                 2008                 .86
                     1997                 .86
13                 1999                 .76
14                 1995                 .74
15                 2000                 .70

Friday, August 12, 2011

Everything Under The Sun Roundup

Finally we have a challenge that begs us to not really build everything under the sun, but rather everything...under the sun. Why so confusing, you may ask...well what I mean is everything under the sun...as in vehicles where the driver's head is exposed to the elements. We're talking bikes, convertibles, Formula 1 racers, that sort of thing...good summer rides where the driver can enjoy the sunshine and/or burn to a crisp under the intense summer heat. Speaking of which, I just got back form Portugal where I spent lots of time on the beach and got the worst sunburn of my life. I always brag that I never burn and my people are of a perfect bronzed skin. This seemed true for everyone else who was there, but my pasty white self has lived in cloudy Seattle far too long. For about four days I couldn't sleep, nor even raise my arms...and the peeling stage was like having a shirt full of potato chips. But seeing all the pretty topless babes on the beach made it all worth it. So we go from topless babes to topless cars in this month's challenge. See what I did there?



And see what Sharpspeed did here? its a Rogue Firepower GTC convertible followed by a Rogue Firepower FCGT Roadster/Racer thingy. Forget trying to look up these vehicles on the interwebs as they're both entirely made up cars, as typical to what Sharpy does. I guess it still follows the rules of the challenge, what with the driver's head being exposed to the open sky and all.



Rogue Firepower GTC



FCGT roadster



Sharpy chimes in later in the challenge with this...uh...dragster/roadster thingy. He tells us this is the biggest engine ever put in a 4-wide LEGO car and since I'm too lazy to look it up, I'm just going to assume he's right. Anybody else wanna claim anything? I'll just take your word for it too.



Open Hot Rod



Ape Fight takes a break from fighting and slinging poo with other apes just long enough to build us this Devil-may-care-all studs-showing sports car in classic Lego style. No parts or techniques date after the mid eighties or so and thus this takes us all back to a simpler time when cheese slopes and half stud offsets were just a thing of the future.



Lego Sports Car Rear



He then follows up with a classic looking technic style Buggy with V-4 engine, rack and pinion steering and adjustable seat. Ahhh just look at that oldschool Tecnic style! Its like the 90's all over again and we were all going gaga over the 8880 Supercar set. Good times.



Lego Buggy



jmaokoen builds f1 racers. Its just what he does. He even jokes about his total predictability with paraphrasing my words: "You’re encouraged to go as different as possible on this" followed by "I guess I didn't get the memo." Here is a Formula 1 racer, true to his usual form.



Ferrari 150 Italia



Later he paraphrases the same quote again but this time maybe got the memo with this rather unusual 8-wheeled configuration. I hate to spoil the plot for ya but its another F1 racer. Every build from jmaokoen had been a F1 racer and probably every entry in the future. I also hate to spoil the plot but that chick in The Crying Game is totally a dude! Yeah.



Ferrari 312 T8



And speaking of spoiled plots, Darth Vader was Luke's father, the killer in Saw was lying in the middle of the creepy bathroom the whole movie and it turns out Bruce Willis was dead the whole time in The Sixth Sense. Sorry to spoil all that for ya but you kinda shoulda seen all those movies anyway. Matthew Maulfair builds a roadster called Caterham. We never saw that coming!



Caterham



Another plot we didn't see coming was Granada Turnier and his little yellor roadster called Yellocular. I've never even heard of the dude until this month but we're glad to have him as all builders are welcome, no matter how great or small. He seems to be an enthusiast of model railroading, The Ford Granada, and an accomplished LEGO builder. Cool!



Yellocular:)



Another accomplished builder we already know is Zenn. This month he chimes in with little Throttle Hot Rod. There is some neat parts usage here including a hammer for the door handle, a LEGO backpack and a couple of weird, unidentified thingies in the engine. They say LEGO so they are official...just can't place what they are.



Throttle Hot Rod



With a challenge that demands no roofs its no surprise there's a lot of hot roddin' going on around here. The Big Rafalski shows us all how its done with this classic '32 Ford rod called "Dogbone". Its namesake is a nice new part used for the front bumper. I've got a slew of these bones in my Queen Anne's Revenge set and I can't wait to use them in some way.







First he throws us a bone, then later in the challenge he comes back and throws us a whole 30's era Shell Service Station with too many not-to-be-missed details to mention. Its chock full of old timey goodness and just perfect for all your hot roddin' and summertime cruising. Nice job!



Lego Hotrod and Shell Service Station



And speaking of old timey goodness, fe2cruz has built us a tiny motorbike with sidecar. Its so tiny, in fact, the sidecar is a minifig castle helmet. This embodies the very definition of nice parts usage and the photography is top notch. He tells us its "for that summer camping trip where you want to scare all the dirty hippies out of the forest". Ah, dirty hippies...when will they ever learn?



MZ ES250 sidecar dual-sport



I'm sure dirty hippies (and anyone for that matter) would be scared silly by Sideswipe as built by NK DeSign-er. First he's a Lamborghini Countach, then he's a robot, then a car again. And how does this fit into the challenge, you might ask? Well sometimes the driver's head is also the...uh...car's head. And its exposed to the elements. Somehow. Well its all very...um...scientific. But it works!



SideSwipe Transformer



Intrond delivers all kinds of eye candy with this curvy and unconventional futuristic hot rod. Equally curvy and unconventional is the illustrated babe superimposed into the photo. He's becoming known for these enhanced illustrations that give his LEGO vehicles a bit of extra character...some extra zip, some bang, some Va-va-va-voooom!



Hot Rod



Lino Martins would add illustrated babes to his/my photos too if only I knew how. Is there a button on this thingamajig that makes Megan Fox appear? What about a code that superimposes Mila Kunis into these aquarium pictures? What does this thing do? Awww crap, it erased my saved fonts! Anyway, I like to keep it oldschool as evidenced by this Green Machine. Its what all the cool kids were riding in '78.



The Green Machine!



Brixe63 adds some much needed class to this joint with her Morgan Plus 8. Yep...she's a chick and one of the world's most impressive LEGO motorcycle builders. The rest of her work is pretty phenomenal as made obvious by this roadster. This proves once and for all that this isn't just a boy's car club so I'd put away that pinup poster, if I were you. And tuck in that shirt. Maybe put some tea and crackers out or something. And for the love of God, put on some pants!



Morgan Plus 8   01



And while you're at it, clean your room! Its a pigsty in there, it looks like you invited Mickey Rourke over. And would it kill you to floss for once? And stop picking at that acne...you want to grow up looking like Edward James Olmos or F. Murray Abraham? I mean if you want to look like a beige orange peel, then pick all you want. Oh and Ace is having some fun under the Tuscan sun with this teeny tiny Runabout II.



Runabout II



Dandyman500 is having some fun of his own with this red and white '55 Chevy. I'm seeing some good techniques throughout the build. And I'm having some fun of my own with this writing. Can't you tell? Well, its either that or be completely bored with it. I'm sure you like the weird ramblings and crass jokes. Who reads these things anyway? No seriously, who reads these? I want to know so comment if you do.



'55 Chevy



Alcak kofte makes his LUGNuts debut with this yellow Cabrio sportster and matching trailer hauling a boat. The steering wheels for the boat rollers is a good touch and I'm digging the red interior. alcak tells us he hails all the way from Turkey. Welcome aboard!



concept vw cabrio w/ boat trailer



Hailing all the way from Australia but no stranger to our challenges is the ubiquitous Lego911. In fact, 911 is so ubiquitous (look it up, kids!) he usually single-handedly submits more entries than all of the others combined. This month he must be taking it slow with only four entries...the first a 1989 Mazda MX5 Miata.



Mazda MX5 Miata (NA) - 1989



Next is the 2005 Ferrari 575M Superamerica complete with a rotatable roof and "flying buttress" rear pillars. I have no idea what that means but a buttress that flies ought to be pretty impressive. My buttress just sits on the couch, drinks coffee, and watches Family Guy reruns!



Ferrari 575M Superamerica - 2005



Third on the 911 slab is this Ferrari F50 Barchetta. There is no references to buttresses in this write up, flying or otherwise. But the engine was hard mounted to the carbon fiber tub. Surprisingly, I have no jokes to go with that so I'll just drink some coffee. Mmmm, Trader Joe's Dark . That's good stuff. Ok, I used my 3-5 lines. Lets move on.



Ferrari F50 Barchetta



Lastly 911 conjures up a 1972 Dino 246 GTS Targa in lovely blue. Pftttt...only four entries! Its like he was asleep all month or something...or maybe designing real cars for Ford Australian Division. Nah, I'd rather go with the asleep theory. But four entries is still three more than I can usually pull off so that's something.



Dino 246 GTS Targa - 1972



What else is something is this Tractor Puller with real remote controlled power functions as built by vmln8r. You can throw practicality out the window as its big, scary, loud, pulls wheelies, and can pull a sleigh, which happens to be hidden by all the superimposed smoke. Its like the Smart car's bigger, louder, stupider brother. That's why I love it!



Power Puller



If you're like me, you've stayed up all night wishing somebody would build an orange and lime pair of go-karts. Well, thankfully it seems Legogil came to the rescue to remedy all my crying and night sweats with this orange and lime pair of go-karts. Gil informs and astounds when he tells us Art Ingels is known as the father of karting and built the first kart in So-Cal in '56. Nice!



Kart



TechnicFenix13 lives up to his name somehow with this duo of Technic retro rides. The first being a totally cool hot rod with surfboard, suicide doors and great oldschool shaping.



hotrod complete 1



The second is a droptop tractor with low stance, a giant exhaust pipe and white on black flames. Its like the Smart car's bigger, louder, stupider...oh wait, I already said that. My buttress just sits on the couch, drinks coffee, and watches...said that already too. Like having a shirt full of potato chips...awww crap, I got nothing. Let's move on.



lowride tractor 6



Dylan says Ace beat him to the "Under the Tuscan Sun" joke, but anyway, here is more Italian topless cruising Ferrari Dino 246 GTS. Ahh to be driving along the Italian countryside with the wind in my hair...shirtless with a midget in the passenger seat. It reminds me of...wait, isn't this like the second Dino 246 GTS entered in this challenge?!



Ferrari Dino 246 GTS



Aaron F1 gets all up in yo' face with this Alpha Romeo Spider. Actually he doesn't. He's a man of few words, Aaron is. The only word in his write up is...front. Be sure to dig through his photostream for the riveting "side" and "back" shots. They're...exactly what you'd expect them to be.



Alfa Romeo Spider



DrZapp may appear to be about 10 years old with this rather rudimentary Blue Rocket 60's era...uh...spoiler dragster thingy. But if he's a real doctor, I'm sure he's a man of advanced education and years...somebody who could operate on my pancreas with the skill of a ninja. Or maybe he's a doctor of literature and smokes a pipe in a tweed jacket with patches on the elbows.



Bluerocket



We know for sure Tim Inman doesn't have a doctorate degree, but he's still one smart cookie when it comes to automobiles as evidenced by this 1954 Ferrari 375 Plus. Tim asks the question; What would the Lugnuts challenge "Everything Under the Sun" be without a sleek, sexy vintage Ferrari race car? it would be a lot less sleek and sexy, thats for sure.



1954 Ferrari 375 Plus



You know who's bringing sexy back? Justin Timberlake. Oh and the Bing-Bong Brothers with this Ferrari Dino in bright yellow. What's the deal with the Bing-Bong Bros. anyway? Are they like one guy or are they really brothers? Are they the Arvo Brothers in disguise? What the hell is going on here?! Someone please shed some light on the matter before my head explodes!



Ferrari Dino



Its really a shame Rolic couldn't join us for this challenge. Wait...hold the phone! Is this an impostor or does Rolic finally have some pieces other than white? It looks like he has plenty enough black and dark red to pull off a very nice Jeep Wrangler Rubicon (topless, of course) But how did the Thin White Duke get so many dark red bricks? can someone please shed some light on the matter before my head explodes?



Jeep Wrangler Rubicon (topless)



And while you're mulling over that David Bowie reference, check out this Lamborghini Spyder built by Mad Physicist. Ralph is a real live physicist with a doctorate and when not playing with test tubes or inventing time travel...or whatever Ralph does...he builds cool cars. Upon his suggestion, I finally read "The Hunt For Zero Point", all about anti-gravity technology. I feel like I finally know some big secrets...not like movie plot secrets but secrets that could get me killed by special agents. Awesome!



Lamborghini Gallardo Spyder (2)



No stranger to some good secrets is Tommy n, probably. Here we see an MR2 Spyder converted into a hot rod. Its tiny and just perfect for keeping in your pocket and bringing out to play with while you wait bored at the dentist office or at the supermarket. Ok, maybe not the supermarket.



Cruiser Rod



Looking almost like the Speed Racer Mach 5 is this Motorama show car built by Raphy. Its no surprise the car looks a bit like the Mach 5 as it was designed in the same timeframe, in the '60's. The man in the suit looking like the long lost 5th Beatle is the car's designer.



1950s Motorama show car



Raphy may have been born in the 90's but he sure knows a couple of beatnik rockabilly hipsters when he sees them. Also hip and rockabilly is their '32 Ford Hi-boy hot rod. Kinda like a real '32 hot rod, the passenger sits comfortably...so long as she doesn't have any legs. The pose looks great for the photo, though, just like something out of the pages of Ol' Skool Rodz magazine...the best magazine where everything in the title is spelled wrong.



1932 Ford Hi-boy hot rod



We've seen plenty of Ferraris, hot rods, go-karts...and a few really weird things thrown into this challenge, but what happens when we're asked to build a pair of things emulating the same color scheme and overall design cues? Merely building a red truck and a red speed boat to go with it is not enough to satisfy the grueling demands of this challenge, but a truck pulling a speed boat, both with matching silver rally stripes, exposed chromed out engines and bubble tops...now we're talking! What we have then is a well thought out cohesive pair...a family portrait, if you will. This is not the challenge for procrastinators or mediocre builders, but it would make a great buddy challenge with a good pair of builders. You'll just have to tune in next month to see how we do in this challenge we like to call Two Of A Kind. I'm keeping mine a total secret that I'll take to my grave...or until I post it later this month...one or the other. But look to the skies...the truth is out there. We have the technology. Bye for now.

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Good News

I read today in the Oakland Tribune that SunPower, Silcon Valley's largest solar manufacturer, has teamed up with Ford to offer a special price for installing solar for people who buy the Ford Focus, due out later this year.



They are offering a 2.5 kilowatt rooftop system for under $10,000, after tax credits, or about $14,000 before credit. What I like about this is that it simplifies the process--buy a car and get the solar all as a package deal. One of the things I have to admit about our installation last year is that I would not have had the time to deal with it when I was working (I'm retired)--getting bids, trying to select a contractor, reading up on Yelp to see who I liked, etc. Of course, our job was complicated by the need to replace our roof and upgrade our electrical system at the same time as we got the solar system. I'm not sure if SunPower will handle all of that as well for people who need it., but that would be nice.



Just to run the numbers a bit more: The Tribune article states that the Ford Focus can travel about 1,000 miles per month on the 2.5 kw system. Now our 3.2 kw system generates about 4200 kwh per year. So, by proportion, a 2.5 kw system would generate (2.5/3.2) x 4200 = 3281 kwh per year, or 273 per month. That means that Ford is expecting the Focus to go 1000/273 = 3,7 miles per kwh. By comparison our Volt is getting about 3.3 miles per kwh.



What the article doesn't explain, but what is very important for solar power and electric cars, is that the PG&E E9 rates are much cheaper for charging at night compared to what the solar power is paid for during the day. So the 3,281 kwh of solar power are worth $0.28 per kwh in peak summer hours during the week, $0.10 in the partial peaks and in the winter, and $0.04 for most of the weekend, so we earn about 13 cents per kwh for our solar.



Meanwhile the 3,281 kwh that the car needs can all be generated at the off peak rate of $0.04, if you have a 220 volt charger that can charge the car in 4 hours. If you charge the car with 110 volts, it will take more like 11 hours to charge so the cost will be around 6 cents per kwh combining off-peak and partial peak charges.



So you earn 13 cents per kwh, but you only pay 4-6 cents to charge the car--i.e. a net profit of at least 7 cents per kwh. Take that times 3,281 and you have a savings of $230 per year on your electrical bill. Now the cost to finance the solar panels with a 30 year loan at todays rate of 4.4% would be $600 per year, with a lock against increasing costs of energy over the years. That $230 should be added to the savings on gasoline that you get with an electric car--less than 2 cents per mile for an electric car vs. 10 - 20 cents per gallon for gasoline depending on your mileage and the constantly changing price of gas.



Of course I would urge people to go ahead and buy a big enough system to zero out their PG&E electrical bill (except for fixed charges). The more solar the merrier! For the 300 kwh per month that our house uses, plus the 250 kwh that the Volt uses, a 3.2 kw rooftop system does the job.

Friday, August 5, 2011

August Update

It's been a while but I have still been driving the EV. I did have to install new brake lines a few weeks ago. They rusted out due to age and I decided to fix them while I search for a new Civic donor.

My Civic is getting old and tired, its 15 years old and body rot is getting to it. I am on the look out for a newer 2001-2005 Civic EX Coupe and I want to up my voltage to at least 120 volts. I am having some problems with my 12 volt system, I think it's either the 12 volt battery needs replacing or the DC/DC isn't working right.

What happened?

The April, 2001 issue of Time magazine focussed on global warming (see front cover below).  The coverage was uncompromising: 
  • "the trend toward a warmer world has unquestionably begun"

  • "scientists no longer doubt that global warming is happening, and almost nobody questions the fact that humans are at least partly responsible"

  • "the increase in temperatures is happening at a pace that outstrips anything the earth has seen in the past 100 million years."



Time's 2001 report points out that:
  • "the 1990s were the hottest decade on record",

  • "glaciers . . . are disappearing"

  • "coral reefs are dying off"

  • "the Arctic permafrost is starting to melt"

  • "migration patterns. . . are being disrupted"

  • "drought is the norm in parts of Asia and Africa"

Now after 10 years of all these trends intensifying, and even hotter weather, more extreme storms, and many disasters, you would think that the press would be howling for change.  But no.  Floods, hurricanes, droughts, wild fires, Snowmageddon last winter, and record heatwaves this summer are all just part of the "crazy weather" we've been having lately.

What happened??!!

IMHO, Time had not really thought through the consequences of their coverage.  If fossil fuels are causing all this destruction, the solution has to be to virtually eliminate fossil fuels.  Perhaps Time  thought that a modest reduction, such as proposed at Kyoto, would be enough to stave off global warming.  But that's not the case.  We need to reduce CO2 from 20 tons per person per year in the U.S. to 1 ton per person to really stop global warming.  And that's a problem.  The oil, gas, and coal companies are the most powerful companies in the world.  And in a society where dollars buy votes, and also where dollars buy advertising in media, it is no surprise that elected officials and media depending on advertising are not willing to call for the elimination of the companies that feed them.  So what was obvious in 2001, and is even more obvious today--namely that global warming is real, and is a terrible threat to humanity--is just not a proper subject for the media to dwell on or for Congress to take action on.

Now I may be a bit too harsh.  California's Democratic controlled legislature found the courage to pass some pretty good laws.  And many cities around the country are taking actions to build a sustainable future.  But the U.S. government is completely stymied by Koch Industries funded deniers, and the media is still pretending that there is an honest debate about global warming being real and being caused by CO2.

The good news is that the cost of wind and solar and batteries for electric cars have all plumeted in the past decade, so the alternatives to fossil fuels are much more affordable than they were in 2001.  Of course, it would have been nice if government had really promoted these technologies during that time instead of continuing subsidies to fossil fuels, but the time we have lost only makes our present efforts all the more urgent.

Revised Goal

I had said that my new goal is, "No more internal combustion engine cars sold after 2030"

However, upon reflection, I'd rather state this in a positive way.  So my goal now is:

"100% of new cars to be electric by 2030"  i.e., old internal combustion engine cars would not be forced off the road, but would be phased out.

What do you think?

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Time to act

Al Gore has a good article in Rolling Stone  He says, "The scientific consensus is far stronger today than at any time in the past. Here is the truth: The Earth is round; Saddam Hussein did not attack us on 9/11; Elvis is dead; Obama was born in the United States; and the climate crisis is real. It is time to act."

My new goal:  No more internal combustion engine cars sold after 2030

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Tossing Coins, Playing Poker, and Global Warming

News Item:   "June 2011 was the 316th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last month with below-average temperature was February 1985." 
 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's monthly climate report.  See (NOAA)

Now if the planet weren't warming, every month would have a 50/50 chance of being warmer or cooler than average, just like flipping a coin for heads or tails, say heads for warmer and tails for cooler.  Now what are the chances of having 316 straight heads?  That would be 0.5 to the 316th power--it's a number so small that my calculator just gave me an error message trying to read it.  Anyone want to bet that next month will be cooler than average?

More news:  Here are the earth's warmest 10 years since records began being kept in 1880:
Rank             Year                Degrees F above 20th Century average
1                   2005                1.12
                     2010                1.12
3                   1998                1.08
4                   2003                1.04
                     2002                1.04
6                   2006                1.01
                     2009                1.01
8                   2007                 .99
9                   2004                 .97
10                 2001                 .94

Now you may notice that 9 of the hottest 10 years are all in the last 10 years! (and 1998 isn't far behind).
Just in case you like to play poker, that would be like drawing four aces in two consecutive hands.  Wouldn't any poker player know that the cards were fixed if they were dealt just one hand with four aces, let alone two in a row?  

Just for fun--what are the odds of that?  Well, thanks to Mr. Google I learned that the odds of drawing 4 aces in one hand of five cards is 1 in 54,145.  So the odds of doing that twice in a row would be to multiply that number by itself.  That gives about 1 in 3 billion.  (To get technical--the odds would even be less than that since we are talking about not just 8 aces, but 9 out of 10.   On the other hand, if there were really 130 years of data the odds of being in the top 10 would be the same as drawing an ace--i.e. 1/13; however some places--e.g. China--didn't start reporting data until 1951, so the odds of being in the top 10 are a bit higher than drawing an ace.)

Also note, these numbers are global (after all we are talking about global warming).  For just the U.S., 1998 is still the hottest year, and even 1921 makes it into the top ten.

Total Pageviews