Last night Bill McKibbin spoke at the Chabot Space and Science Center about global warming. You may know that McKibbin is the founder of 350.org, the group that has done more worldwide than anyone to publicize the need to stop burning fossil fuels. He also led in organizing the recent protests at the White House where over 1200 people were arrested protesting the Keystone XL pipeline to Canada's tar sands. Obama is expected to rule on the pipeline this fall. And McKibbin is a prolific author, starting in 1989 with
The End of Nature, the first book about global waming written for a popular audience.
His latest book is
Eaarth, subtitled,
Making a Life on a Tough New Planet. Eaarth (pronounced with sort of an Arnold Schwarzenegger/German umlaut รค sound) makes the point that we've already radically changed the climate by going past 350 parts per million of CO2. He referred to the photos of earth from the Apollo mission in the late 1960s, showing a gleaming blue-white planet against the blackness of space. But now that planet (or at least the climate it had) no longer exists. There is 40% less arctic ice in the summer, the oceans are 30% more acidic--it's a new world.
Jack and Ayda Lucero Fleck with Bill McKibbin in Oakland 9/9/2011
Rather than recite the many examples in his book, McKibbin listed some of the catastrophic weather events since the book went to press in late 2009.
- record heat (129 degrees F!) in Pakistan followed by record floods caused by 12 feet of rain in a week where there is normally 3 feet of rain in a year.
- 8 days with temperatures over 100 degrees in Russia, where it had never even been 100 before, and the consequent damage to the wheat harvest driving up wheat prices by 70%
- the drought in Somalia and Texas now going on. Texas and Oklahoma had their hottest summers ever by large margins
- the rain on September 8 in Binghamton, NY where they had 60% more rain in one day than ever before, and the previous record was set just last year
- Vermont, his home state, where 150-200 year old covered bridges were washed away by Hurricane Irene
And, he added, the 1 degree Celsius increase that we have today, is "
just the beginning" with emphasis on each of those words.
He stressed that the climate science models are "clear and robust." We have to get off of coal and gas or "we will have 4-5 degrees C of warming before the century is out. And civilization can't deal with 4-5 degrees C of warming."
He stated, "The climate scientists have done their job," adding that there is a consensus among scientists that this temperature increase will happen if we keep burning fossil fuels. If anything "scientists are conservative, and underestimate" the changes, he continued.
He also said, "Engineering has worked." i.e. we have the technology to provide renewable energy as an alternative to fossil fuels.
So the problem is that "the political method has failed. We have a 20 year bi-partisan record of doing absolutely nothing." And the reason is the "power of the fossil fuel industry. . . . Exxon made more money last year than any company in the history of money" With that money "to block and stall [legislation for reducing greenhouse gases] is the easiest thing in the world."
Three and a half years ago, he and a small group of students founded 350.org, because they realized that we "need a movement to press for real change." They hit on the idea of using arabic numerals, since these are used worldwide and "cross linguistic boundaries." Their first day of action, October 24, 2009, sparked 5,100 demonstrations in over 100 countries. At Copenhagen, later that year, the goal of 350 ppm was endorsed by 117 nations. But he explained with irony, "They were the wrong nations. . .they were the poor and vulnerable." In 2010, 350.org organized 7,400 demonstrations--a "global work party" in every country except North Korea. They were given a boost when the head of the Eastern Orthodox church gave a sermon where he said, "Global warming is a sin, and 350 ppm is an act of redemption." This year on September 24, the theme of the actions will be "moving planet", focusing on transportation. (Right down the alley of this blog, but more on that in a moment)
McKibbon went on to discuss why the Keystone XL pipeline demonstrations are so important. He explained that the tar sands represent "the second largest pool of carbon on earth," next to the Saudi Arabia oil fields. Burning the tar sands would put another 150 parts per million of CO2 into the atmosphere. He quoted NASA climate scientist James Hansen, saying that this would be "game over" for the attempt to stop global warming. So he and another 1200 or so people put their bodies on the line to oppose the pipeline. He asked, "Who are the radicals? Not us. The radicals work for the oil companies--changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere is a radical action. We are the conservatives, trying to preserve the atmosphere." He urged the audience to visit
tar sands action to learn more.
The question I raised my hand to ask was, "Would you agree that to reach 350 ppm we need to go to 100% renewable energy and 100% electric cars?, and if so, how can we get there?"
However, there were a lot of hands up and the first question also concerned cars. The questionner commented on President Obama's speech the night before, which called for strengthening the auto industry to sell cars to China. The questionner felt that was unfortunate. McKibbin's answer to that was to agree that "simply more of the same is not possible" and that we "need to change course." My reaction to that answer was that it was too vague; it didn't acknowledge that the auto industry could switch to electric cars instead of internal combustion engines. The question was an opportunity to point out that the auto industry is not the same as the oil industry and that they could part ways. So I rasied my hand again.
The second person called on was more of a like mind with me. She pointed out that she is having her Prius converted to a plug-in and that this was something everyone could do. McKibbin answered that "we can't solve the problem one house at a time", and that "we need a price on carbon." Now I agree with both of these statements, but they don't really address the woman's point--we can all start planning now to switch to electric cars (and I would add, solar panels) as part of a massive effort to eliminate fossil fuels. I also notice that his answer avoided the issue of cap and trade, which I also feel is part of the solution.
Since that question was pretty close to my own, I felt his answer to my question would be pretty much the same. So I didn't keep my hand raised for the remainder of the questions.
Afterwards I spoke with Bill during the book signing about a comment he made regarding Copenhagen. He remarked that one of the only good things about the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in 2009 was that people got to see a city with so many bike paths and cyclists, where "bicycle congestion" is a problem, adding that we should all be so lucky. I said that I thought bikes and transit were important parts of the solution, but he should know that even though Copenhagen has 50% of its trips by bicycle, 80% of its vehicle miles are by auto, i.e people use cars for longer trips. So even Copenhagen needs to switch to electric cars. I also offered him a chance to drive our Volt, but he had already done that. I don't think I convinced him to be as enthusiastic about electric cars as I am, but I'm hoping he will add electric cars/solar panels to the list of solutions he offers. He did speak favorably of Felix Kramer and Cal Cars, which I also heartily agree with (see
calcars.org).
All in all, I was very impressed with Bill's energy, commitment, and articulation of the crisis. He is clearly an outstanding leader of this movement to save the planet. I wish him every possible success, and hope to keep supporting him and
350.org.
Michael Brune & John Avalos (SF Board of Supervisors) holding 350 sign with Gail McLaughlin speaking
