Tipping Points

Dramatic change comes when gradual pressures for change build up to a tipping point/turning point--an avalanche, a birth, a collapse, a discovery, an earthquake,  . . . (see my web site for many more examples:   ABC's of Change )

What we can do to help make change is push in the direction of a tipping point.  If we all push hard enough, we can make big changes. 

Here are three tipping points we should push for:

1.  Wind and Solar Power--When the cost of wind/solar is less than fossil fuels, there will be a dramatic change.  There will be no reason to continue providing power with gas or coal, and we can phase these out.  We are already there in California, where there's lots of sun, and we don't use cheap coal.  We still need support for people to finance the loans for solar, and people need help getting solar panels installed, but the economics look better every year.

2.  Electric cars--I've argued throughout this blog that the cost of a Chevy Volt is no more than the cost of buying a new average internal combustion engine (ICE) car when you take into account the savings on gas.  If batteries keep improving, as I'm sure they will, the advantages of electric cars will soon outweigh any ICE and that will be a big turning point.

3.  Public awareness of global warming--right now, the oil companies control the media, and the media refuses to publicize the disaster that we are heading for.  However, at some point, I think Wall Street will recognize that it needs a stable environment to do business, and that fossil fuels are wrecking the climate.  At that point I think there will be a split between the oil companies and the rest of the business world.  It's already happening on a small scale between auto companies and oil companies; today auto companies are no longer fighting higher mileage requirements and are starting to sell electric cars.  When Wall Street finally realizes that its future is more imperiled by supporting big oil than by supporting clean alternatives, that will be a huge tipping point.  At that point the media will magically rediscover science and we can start phasing out fossil fuels.  We're not there yet in the U.S., but most of the world is ready.

Tipping Points to Avoid

Unfortunately there are some very bad tipping points that we are also heading for.  In fact, we may already have hit the point where Greenland is going to melt and drown the world's coastlines.  We may have hit the point where the Andes/Himalayas/Sierra Nevada and other mountain glaciers and snowpacks will become too depleted to provide water for farming and cities down below.  We may have hit the point where the permafrost is melting and giving off so much methane that global warming is heading for truly disastrous heights.  Whether we have reached these points or not, we know we have to stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, or we will eventually reach them, with all the human suffering they will bring in their wake.

The faster we can move to wind/solar power and electric cars, the better chance we have of avoiding ever bigger disasters.