54.5 mpg

It's great that auto makers agreed to a goal of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. Actually new cars then will get more like 40 mpg, but the average is brought up by the presence of about 30% hybrids (currently 2-3%) and 5-10% electric cars. But 54.5 has to be seen as only a step in the right direction.

As I've argued before on this blog, the earth can only absorb 8 billion tons of CO2. Since there are almost 8 billion people, that gives each of us 1 ton to work with. If we drive 1200 miles per month (national average) and average 54.5 mpg, that is still 257 gallons of gasoline per year. At 21 pounds of CO2 per gallon (counting refining) that equals about 2.5 tons of CO2. And that's just for our personal driving; it doesn't include trucks, trains, boats, planes, or all the CO2 generated by industry and farming. Given all these other sources of CO2, and that it's difficult to replace natural gas for heating, we have to get cars completely off of fossil fuels if we are to stand any chance of stopping global warming; i.e. 2.5 tons of CO2 for personal driving is 2.5 tons too much. To get off of fossil fuels means 100% electric cars with the electricity generated by renewable sources such as solar. It also means more bike/pedestrian/transit friendly development to take the place of low density urban sprawl. I also think there is a place for biofuels if they are produced with a very low carbon footprint.

And we need to act fast. By the 54.5 goal year of 2025, at our current rate of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, we will be close to 425 parts per million. Since 350 ppm is already identified by leading climatologist James Hansen as a danger point, continuing the rise is fraught with danger.

What we really need is a timetable to phase out all internal combustion engine vehicles. How about an agreement to stop making them by 2030, and to stop selling gasoline without special circumstances (e.g. antique cars, hardship cases for old cars owned by poor people, . . .) by 2040?