Solar Power & Electric Cars--the numbers are better than ever

I admit that I'm biased--I really want solar power and electric cars to work.  This is not because I stand to make any money from either of these technologies.  Much more important than that, I believe that the future survival of humanity requires it.  Check out the current record forest fires in Colorado for the latest warning shout from global warming.

But I also try to be as accurate as possible with the facts.  I know that electric cars and solar power are expensive.  The question is whether they are cost effective.  If people can save money by buying solar panels and electric cars, then they will buy them.  The key issue here is that both of these purchases require big up-front investments.  Since most of us don't have enough cash on hand, that means that we need to borrow it.  The good news is that interest rates keep going down, making these investments better than ever.

Solar is now cheaper than PG&E

For solar, the ideal is a 30 year mortgage.  The current rate for that is around 3.5%.  According to a June 19, 2012 report from Greentech Media the current cost for solar installed in the U.S. is $4.44 (compared to only $2.24 per watt in Germany!).  Using the U.S. figure for our modest 3.24 kilowatt system, the cost would be $14,386.  At 3.5% for 30 years, the Capital Recovery Factor is .054.  Therefore, the cost would be .054 x $14,386 = $777 per year.  Since our system generated 4,371 kilowatt hours (kwh) in its first year, that would come to $777/4,371 = 17.8 cents per kwh, which is slightly less than PG&E's average.

That's the unsubsidized cost.  In fact there is a 30% federal tax credit which reduces the cost to $l0,070.  The annual cost then becomes .054 x $10,070 = $544 per year, dropping the cost to 12.4 cents per kwh, lower than the lowest PG&E rate for standard households of 12.8 cents/kwh.  With these costs any homeowner in Northern California can save money with solar.  It used to be that only heavy electricity users would save money, but that is no longer the case--now everyone can save!

But that's not all!  Because of net metering, solar is reimbursed at the peak rates, while most of our electricity is in the off-peak charging our car.  Therefore, our 4,371 kwh of solar power paid for 6,460 kwh of power.  See Everything is going according to plan for more details on these numbers. Adding $54 in PG&E minimum charges to the $544 payment for the solar means that the actual cost per kwh would be $598/6,460 = 9.2 cents per kwh.

What about electric cars?

The low interest rates also make the additional investment in an electric car more attractive.  For a car that you plan to keep for its life, a 15 year loan would be ideal.  The current rate on 15 year home refinancing loans is around 3%.   A Chevy Volt costs around $33,000 after rebates.  Assuming that is about $15,000 more than what a conventional car costs, what is the better deal--borrow $15,000 or buy a gasoline car? 

If the gasoline car gets 25 miles per gallon of gas, and gas costs $3.75 per gallon, that means it costs 15 cents per mile to drive.  Electricity to charge a car at night is now priced at about 6 cents per kwh (PG&E wants to raise this to 10 cents--see pg&e proposed rate change), so the Volt costs about 2 cents per mile to drive (3 miles per kwh).  This means you save 13 cents per mile compared to the gasoline car.  At 10,000 miles per year that is $1300.  The Capital Recovery Factor for 15 years at 3% is .084, which means that it would cost you .084 x 15,000 = $1,260 to pay off the loan.  In other words the $1,300 you save is greater than the $1,260 it costs to pay the loan. 

So a Volt is a better buy than a gasoline car that gets 25 miles per gallon.  By similar math, a Leaf, costing $26,000 after rebates is cheaper than a gasoline car costing $18,000 and getting 40 miles per gallon.

So  make your next car electric, and you'll be saving money.

Review of Suck It Up, by Marc Gunther

Review of Suck It Up, by Marc Gunther.  Published as a Kindle Single.

The idea that we can solve the problem of global warming by sucking CO2 out of the air is like a wonderful magic bullet.  Suddenly, we could bring the CO2 level down from its current level of 392 parts per million to a safe level of 350 ppm, and we could go on burning coal, natural gas, and oil with only the relatively minor consequences such as wars for oil, polluted air and water, and a political system controlled by oil companies. 

Gunther's short, well written book does not deny the seriousness of the problem of global warming.  Nor does he deny that renewable energy and electric cars would be a great solution, and that we should support such efforts.  His strongest argument is that the obstacles to a carbon free future are too great to overcome.  His points include:

·         "the transition away from gasoline and diesel in the transport sector will take many decades"

·         It is impossible to ask developing nations to use less energy

·         Politicians can only afford to think short-term

·         Nothing has remotely worked to slow down emissions so far

He also considers other methods of geoengineering, comparing them to chemotherapy--i.e. something you only do under desperate circumstances.  But the side effects of geoengineering are potentially as bad as global warming--e.g. acidification of the oceans and other less predictable but equally dire consequences. 

By contrast, capturing CO2 from the air would have much less of a downside--it just returns CO2 to a safe level.  Gunther looks at three startup companies who are trying to suck it up:

• Carbon Engineering, run by David Keith in Calgary.  Keith envisions carbon-capture plants that can combine CO2 with hydrogen to make gasoline or diesel fuels.
• Global Thermostat, formed by Peter Eisenberger and Graciela Chichilinisky.  Their process uses excess heat from power plants to drive a chemical process that binds CO2 from the air.  Their model machine is designed to capture about four or five tons of CO2 per day.   17 million of these machines could counteract the 30 billion tons of CO2 that earth produces per year.

• Kilimanjaro Energy, founded by Klaus Lackner.  Their plan is to use algae to convert CO2 to fuel.

Each of these companies has technology that can pull CO2 from the air.  The question is whether they can do it at an affordable cost.  Also, there is the problem of volume.  First, there is the 30 billion tons of CO2 per year that we currently produce annually.  And if we reduce CO2 by 40 ppm, that will give us another 280 billion tons of CO2 that we will need to deal with.

As mentioned, one option is to pull the CO2 from the air, and then process it back into a fuel.  This would qualify as renewable, so it would be a great breakthrough, but it wouldn't actually reduce the level of CO2 in the air.  

Estimates of the cost of these technologies vary from $50 per ton to $1000 per ton.  Since one gallon of gasoline creates 20 pounds of CO2 when it is burned, it takes 100 gallons to create a ton of CO2.  So if the cost of removal of CO2 from the air is $1000 per ton, that would come to $10 per gallon.  If the cost could be brought down to around $200 per ton, it would only cost $2 per gallon to remove the CO2.  The cost of storing the CO2, or processing it back to gasoline would need to be added, but it seems to me that the costs/benefits are at least in the realm of possibility.

While these efforts are very worthwhile, we should not let them sidetrack us from the need to cut back on fossil fuel use.  Counting on a magic bullet to save us from global warming is foolhardy.  We already have the technology to provide our energy with solar and wind, and convert our transportation to electricity.  We should do that as rapidly as possible.  All the scientists and entrepreneurs that Gunther interviews for his book agree that "it would be a terrible mistake to view any negative emission technologies as a license to continue to burn fossil fuels."

How Big is Big Oil/Coal/Gas?

The power of the fossil fuel industry appears overwhelming.  They are making billions in profits every month, they buy senators and congressmembers with ease, they take out full page ads in newspapers and magazines to make sure these publishers know not to cross them, and they continue to spread disinformation about climate change. 

All this seems insurmountable.  But is it?  While oil, coal, and gas companies stand to lose if we take global warming seriously, what about the rest of the economy?  What about industries such as computers, pharmaceuticals, construction, electronics, tourism, and everyone not tied to the fossil fuel industry?  It used to be that the auto companies saw their interests intimately tied to the oil industry, but with electric cars now coming on, that is no longer true. 

Based on a quick google check and some arithmetic, the total capital value of the oil companies on the New York Stock Exchange is about $1.4 trillion.  Natural gas companies not already counted in the oil totals (e.g. ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron, Conoco also own lots of natural gas), come to about $132 billion, and coal companies come to a measly $8 billion.  Now that all sounds like a lot, but the value of all the other companies on the NY Stock Exchange and NASDAQ comes to around $18 trillion.

In other words the fossil fuel industry is less than 10% of total corporate wealth.  If the 90% of the corporate wealth begins to act rationally--i.e. accept science and their own senses--the oil companies suddenly don't look so big. 

And that doesn't even count the greatest power of all--people power.  If people grasp what is at stake--their jobs, food supply, family's future. . .--the oil companies will look very small indeed.

Nothing is as powerful as an idea whose time has come.--Victor Hugo

PG&E's minimum charges

This has taken me over a year to figure out, so I thought I should post about it.  The issue is--What does PG&E mean by minimum charge?  We pay $11 each month, of which about $6.50 is a meter reading fee and $4.50 is a minimum charge.

When I first heard about minimum charge, I thought that PG&E would make a minimum charge for months where our solar panels put out enough electricity so that there was no monthly bill.  But then I noticed that the $11 monthly fee kept appearing on our PG&E bill every month, both in summer when there was a negative bill, and in winter, when the bill was positive.  So then I assumed that the minimum charge was just added onto the monthly bill no matter what.

But it turns out that the minimum charge is compared to the amount due at the end of the one year "true-up" accounting. If the total bill is less than the minimum charge for the year (about $54), then the balance due is dropped.  If the total bill is greater than $54, then the customer must pay the difference.

This seems pretty simple, but I don't see it explained anywhere. I can only conclude that PG&E is not too interested in people understanding how to minimize their electric bill by sizing their solar panels to be just enough to reach the minimum charge.

Rubber Side Down, Shiny Side Up...Roundup

Father's Day is this month. Did you guys do anything nice for your dads? Since I've been on the planet for a while, I feel qualified to offer up some fatherly advice...that being: If you keep making that face it'll stay that way, If you're going to kill each other do it outside-I just finished cleaning, and finally, if you keep doing that you'll go blind. Crap...that's more like motherly advice, isn't it? Here we go again with this! Well, what else would you have expected? If you wanted crass humor and LEGO automotives you've come to the right place. If you wanted a certain Michigan based minor league baseball team, thats the other Lugnuts. What, you think I haven't googled you, Lansing? We want a wikipedia page too! Anyway, welcome to a challenge roundup that would make any dad swoon...we call it Rubber Side Down, Shiny Side Up...all about motorcycles. We've had a pretty good turn out here...let's see what we've done.

Zenn starts us off with Outlaw, a trike inspired by Exile Cycles. Sounds downright dastardly to me! This road hog features stock TLG doohickeys,custom springer whatchamacallits, oldschool 'airride' thingamajiggers, tucked this and that, and a slew of other mean sounding technical gadgets to make any biker's heart go pitter-patter. Apparently it did...it got blogged by Exile Cycles. Take that, Lansing, you weenies!



With only the second entry Omar+kamitera breaks the land speed record with The World's Fastest Indian. I don't mean the Indians that we now have to call First Natives, thanks to Christopher Columbus, or the other Indians that offer tech support in an accent no one can understand. I'm talking about an American bike built by a New Zealander. They made a movie out of it. So the land speed record has already been broken...everybody go home. Get the hell outta here! Go on, get out! Git!



Or stay just a little longer to see what Reverend Turtle is up to. Turns out, he's got something almost as fast. He was thinking about the best way to go about building in minifig scale, and his answer was to do something futuristic with a dash of Tron. I find also a dash of coriander goes very well and also just a dash of lemon zest. But don't over do it...you don't want your futuristic Tron cycle tasting too bitter.



Forget all this high speed nonsense. If you're like me, you're all about "low and slow". The good Reverend knows what I mean with his second entry...a steam bike that is part steampunk and part sci-fi. There's just about nothing lower than this...the tires loom tall as the rider's butt nearly scrapes on the ground...and she's a cute rider, too!



Like Zenn, Jonathan Derksen also has trikes on the brain but this one has a ridiculously huge honkin' V-8 engine. Because everyone needs an engine powerful enough to pull a loaded trailer while sitting atop nothing but a frame on wheels, right? None of this sounds at all safe...but if you wanted safe, you'd listen to James Taylor while driving your tan Saab. You've got a friend, Jonathan. Its good to know you've got a friend.



And while you're mulling over that reference, Jonathan later comes back with a high tech sports bike in gleaming white. Both front and rear suspension are fully functional, thereby showing the rest of us up with all our non-functioning havin' suspension. Now I feel like a loser. And when I feel like a loser, I lash out at those who don't deserve it. Screw you, James Taylor! I ain't your friend anymore!



Later in the challenge, Jonathan comes back with entry numero tres with...a chopper! You have to write it with an exclamation point cuz that's how he did it. A chopper! This time he says a plain photo backdrop is for wimps and gives us a glimpse into his kitchen. He also just calls it..."photo". May I also suggest other one word titles such as "piccadilly", "fist" and "pants".



You know who else built a chopper? DoktorZapp. He's a real doctor and therefore maybe he can have a look at this spot on my arm that, like his chopper, has also gone black and blue. I think it's either jungle rot or a vampire bat bite. Either way, it has absolutely nothing at all to do with my friend Tom shooting me in the arm this weekend with a Nerf gun. I was wearing a wrestling mask at the time. We were drunk. So break it to me, doktor...how long do I have to live?



While I wait for those test results, we can bask in the glory of this Café Racer Burnout built by gotoAndLego. He knows café racers started out in the British punk scene so it only makes sense that the bike is accompanied by a pink-haired punk rocker. Oy! Bollocks! God save the Queen! Crickey! Criminy bloody hell wankers!



Is your shirt tucked in? Of course it isn't. How can you tuck in a shirt without wearing any pants? Well anyway, LegoMyMamma chimes in with the LymeTrycle. The rake of the front fork is wicked unsafe like none other seen and this trike has enough overall badassery to make the rest of us feel just a little insecure about our manhood. Screw you, Lansing Lugnuts!



And speaking of overall badassery, Dennis Glaasker is well secure in his manhood as evidenced by this Harley Fatboy Custom adorned in an aggressive black and orange color scheme. Its been a year since he built a bike so its nice to see him pull off another one. Man, just look at all that chromey goodness! I'm like a goldfish, whenever I see something shiny I forget everything I know. What are you all doing here?



Who are the Lansing Lugnuts and why am I so crass? Anyway,I'm pretty sure Nathan Proudlove is my Co-Founder and he is trapped in some Canadian hotel room probably with cabin fever...or whatever it is what Canadians suffer from in the Great White North. He's once again without his usual bricks but has just enough to go and built a Can-Am Spyder, which takes all the glory and badassery out of bike riding but enables you to ride in the snow. Leave it to the Canadians to come up with such a thing!



Lets say you're a European hipster rooted in punk rock. Lets say also that you're thirsting something fierce for a venti vanilla latte and have to race to the nearest corner café, otherwise you'll die of thirst. You might then hop on a pair of Café Racers...the first a 1975 Rickman CR750 in refreshing orange or the other a stripped down racer in tangy lime. Long gas tanks and short seats...that's what café racing is all about. That and criminey bollocks wankers.





New guy Sabby M builds us a pint-sized Ducati 999. Is it time for a seemingly unrelated joke yet? I think it is. My mom said if I keep doing that I'd go blind...but I keep doing that and I haven't gone blind yet. Shows how much moms know! So I guess I'll keep doing that. And by that I mean randomly letting friends shoot me in the face with a Nerf gun. Haven't gone blind from it yet.



Ralph Savelsberg has done it all...motorcycles, trikes, choppers, bicycles...even that thing most moms worry you'd go blind if you keep doing. But what he hasn't done yet is a scooter. So naturally he whips one up in typical Ralph style with all the studs showing and the wind blowing through the rider's hair. He hopes to include this in an Amsterdam themed diorama. Don't forget the prostitutes, sex shops and legalized weed, Ralph! Hah! I've always wanted to say that to Ralph.



Raphy gives is a vintage motorcycle photographed within a musty LEGO built garage setting. The garage-y doodads in the background are sweet, including the boom box, tool chests and trophies. He gives us just a taste of this neat little world, then tells us there hopefully will be more. Yet sadly at the time of this writing there is no more. That's ok, they said the same about Carnivale and Firefly too.



I've heard of many, many things in my time...the Loch Ness Monster...Big Foot...Chupacabra...a Mothman that dials up Richard Gere from a pay phone and harasses him about his Chapstick. But I've never heard of a drag quad. TechnicFenix13 builds one and in order to appease our unbelieving eyes, he has also included a grainy photo in the background of a real drag quad captured in captivity. Take that, Lansing Lugnuts!



You have a nine year losing streak, we have drag quads. And the tour-de-force known as Lego911. Are you sitting comfortable? Are you relaxed? Did you brew yourself a pot of Three-Peckered Billy Goat Coffee? Did you think I'd forget the three-peckered references this roundup? Anyway, Peter steps up to the plate and hits a home run with his first entry...a remake of set #393, the Norton 850 Commander.



Next Peter pumps up the street cred with this low and mean street brawling bike that he simply calls "Café Racer One". This implies there would be a Café Racer Two, Three, and Four but, like Firefly, Peter cancelled the line after only one season in favor of other endeavors.



Some of the aforementioned other endeavors include this third entry called "Twin Pipe Cruiser", featuring a longitudinal vee-engine and high-profile, twin chrome exhausts. I'm liking the low and mean quality of these bikes. Its good to see such a prolific car builder try his hand at so many cool bikes.



My fave of the bunch has to be this little beast he calls "Hell Razor". With its low handle bars and cracked skull decal, its just the kind of badass bike I'd have if I were man enough to know how to ride a bike. Turns out, I'm kind of a sissy when it comes to loud, dangerous and fast machines. My girlfriend, though...she rides a bike.



Lastly Peter chimes in with a cool limey dirt bike. When I say limey I mean lime green...and not a derogatory term for a British person. Although it could be a Limey riding the bike. Or maybe even a Paddy. I wouldn't rule out a Mick or a Yank either. Had enough with these outdated, old-timey terms? Ok, lets move on.



Everyone turn off the James Taylor. C'mon, turn it off, right now! Ralph, I know you're listening to Coldplay, turn it off! Nathan, I don't want to hear any Nickelback outta you! Canadians! To view this entry by Rolic, it requires you to listen to some real heavy Rock and Roll...might I suggest "Ace of Spades" by Motorhead. Its the only thing truly heavy metal enough to properly appreciate the total badass-ness of this fiery hot Rock and Trike. Lansing, you've got nothing on us!



Forget biofuel, wind-powered, electric, earthy-crunchy feel-good bikes. According to The Big Rafalski, bikes of the future will be fueled by pure evil. This particular Moto-Terminator Ducati Monster runs on premium evil, which is a bit more expensive but offers more rage to the gallon...which is perfect for when Christian Bale decides to yell and cuss out the help again.



We have plenty of rage in this group but we are sadly lacking the other two things that gets us all up in the morning...that being guns and meat. I can't stress enough the need for guns and meat around here. Luckily Dandyman500 answers our prayers with this little gun and meat-laden entry. Words from Dandyman:
"This is a bike I made and I got all frustrated and sweaty." Nice!



Answering the call to all our sweat and frustration is Tiler with this slick chopper for cool guy Nick Fury. It makes sense that the one-eyed Avengers boss would have a stretched chopper called Silver Fury...and with a name like that, I bet he's sick and tired of these motherhonkin' snakes on this motherhonkin' plane!



Ace chimes in with a dastardly trio of dirt bike motor sport thingys. The first is appropriately called Mellow Yellow, the second is named True Blue while the third sports the name Dark Edge. Wait, that last one doesn't rhyme! What gives? Was Dark Spark already taken? Subdued Hued isn't without its charms either. Just sayin'.







Erth&Fiya changed his name to Volume X and with that comes the...um...Ice Vikings theme and a three-wheeled Spiker. You see,in the future a long extinct race of Nordic warriors will come back, but this time sporting hellish ice bikes. Heck, I'd buy it if I saw it in the store. You can have that chance...just vote for it on cuusoo.



That about wraps up our roundup for this challenge we called Rubber Side Down, Shiny Side Up...all about motorcycles and their many variants. I think we did pretty well here and had fun too. Oh, and I got those test results back. Turns out the black and blue mark on my arm was just a bruise after all and will fade away in a few days. It was a result of excessive horseplay and roughhousing...most likely from my friend Tom shooting me in the arm with a Nerf gun. It was not jungle rot or a vampire bat bite. Barring I don't go and get hit by a goddamned bus, I should live on indefinitely. Which brings us to our next month's challenge, all about goddamned busses...uh, I mean its called Plain Jane. Its the first ever two month, two part challenge. First build anything you want...even a goddamned bus...but make it plain, maybe even a bit rusted and in need of repair. The second month we customize and/or restore the ever lovin' bejesus outta what we built the first month! Sound good? We're just going to have to stay tuned to see how we all did. Should be interesting. Alrighty, I got a lot of building to do so I best get to it. See ya next time. Oh and...screw you, Lansing Lugnuts!